Post-Kaiser-Harvard Poll
The Washington Post is reporting the results of the Post-Kaiser-Harvard Survey of Low-Wage Workers, which shows that working class voters--even white working class voters--are tilting decidedly in...
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Convention Bumps
Many years ago, when I was writing Do Campaigns Matter?, I had a lot of fun working on the chapter on conventions. As the 2008 conventions draw near, I thought it would be useful to update some of the...
View ArticleV.P. Pick
...no data...no model...just a guessHillary ClintonWhy? Well, all the party unity stuff, of course. But also, since she's generally not on many of the beltway lists, picking her would be a bold and...
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Obama Bump Prediction
As promised last week, I have a prediction for Obama's bump in the polls from the upcoming Democratic convention.Based on his current standing in the polls (4.75 points behind his expected--based on my...
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Nominating Conventions--Who's Watching?
This post is brought to you by Joe Cera, a graduate student in political science at UWM.One of the central functions conventions serve is as important group identity rallying points. They are...
View ArticleMcCain Bump Prediction
Based on the analysis presented here, my prediction for John McCain's convention bump is 1.4 percentage points. Based on the way I measure bumps, McCain's share of the two-party vote in trial-heat...
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Convention Bump Recap
Now that we have a little distance from the end of the Republican convention it's possible to compare the actual convention bumps to those I had anticipated. As described in a previous post, the bump...
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Media and Momentum
In my last post I mentioned that I thought part of the explanation for Obama's meager convention bump was that the Palin announcement on the day after the convention robbed Obama/Biden of much of the...
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Debate Effects
The first of three presidential debates is scheduled for this Friday, the 26th of September. We can expect to see the two campaigns positioning themselves and trying to manipulate (lower) expectations...
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Brewers!
C.C. gets the last out: Brewers 3, Cubs 1The Brewers watch the end of the Mets/Marlins game on the Jumbotron. Go Fish!Marlins win, Brewers celebrate!It's nice to take a break from the election.
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Election Forecasts
A new symposium on forecasting the 2008 presidential election is now available online in PS:Political Science and Politics. This is a collection of forecasts from several political scientists,...
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Electoral College Forecast--September Polls
Back in April I wrote a post about using September polls to forecast election outcomes in the states. The general finding from the work I've done with Jay DeSart is that candidates generally win states...
View ArticleForecasting the Electoral College with October Data
As promised in my last post on the September Model I'm be posting a rolling Electoral College forecast (in the panel to the right), based on past election results and October national and state-level...
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Wisconsin Survey
This semester I'm coordinating a small group of seniors in our new Undergraduate laboratory for the Empirical Analysis of Politics (ULEAP), and I'm also teaching freshman seminar titled, Politics by...
View ArticleElectoral College Update
Jay's latest update to our Electoral College forecast (right panel) switches West Virginia from Obama to McCain. To be honest, I was a bit squeamish about having it in the Obama column but that's what...
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The Jewish Vote
John Sides has a new post over at The Monkey Cage on the levels of support for Obama among Jewish voters. One question that has come up during the campaign is whether Jewish voters will support Obama...
View ArticleFeeling Mavericky
With no offense intended to Senator McCain, I remember the real Original Maverick. I also have fond memories a true American (100%) Maverick. I'm kind of surprised that neither side has found a way to...
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Leading Indicators for Election Night
Several states (Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia) will be the first to report election results tomorrow night, coming in at 7:00 p.m.(EST). Although the outcomes in South...
View ArticlePaths to 270
In addition to my post on leading indicators to watch for tomorrow night, check out Jay DeSart's summary of the "paths to 270."
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Final Forecasts
The table below summarizes various models I've worked with this fall, as well as the projections of two of my undergraduate classes. All of these projections point to a big night for Obama. I have the...
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